The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery (December 2020) - with David Kreitmeir and Paul Raschky.
Civil society is essential to governance, especially where laws and authority are weak. We study how a core strategy of international civil society groups - informing and publicizing human rights abuses - impacts those tied to abuse. Our study focuses on a major trend at the center of on-going international media campaigns: the assassination of civil society activists involved in mining activity. Collecting and coding 20 years of data on assassination events, we use Event Study Methodology to study how publicity of these events impact the asset prices of firms associated with abuse. We show that publicizing abuses has a significant impact on multinationals. Firm's associated with an assassination have large, negative abnormal returns following the event. We calculate a median loss in market capitalisation of over 100 million USD, ten days following violence. We highlight the role of media publicity in our results. We show negative returns from assassinations are stronger during periods of low media pressure, versus when they coincide with competing newsworthy events. As well, we argue our results are driven by events where companies are explicitly named in media publicity, using a set of placebo events where no firms were identified by news coverage. Furthermore, we reject that our results are driven by other forms of unrest and conflict. Last, we show activist assassinations are positively related to the royalties paid by firms to domestic governments.
The New Empirics of Industrial Policy (January 2020) - Review article, requested for Dani Rodrik's volume of Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade.
Abstract - Nations have and will continue to shape their economies through industrial policy. Nevertheless, the empirical literature on these interventions is thin, dwarfed by the attention these policies receive by policymakers across the world. In this paper, I discuss the difficulties of empirically studying industrial policy, and review how new econometric work is confronting these issues. Through careful research design and attention to institutional detail, I argue that emergent evaluations are rapidly expanding what we know—and updating what we thought we knew—about these policies. This review is a proposal to take industrial interventions, along with all their complexities, more seriously as objects of inquiry. Doing so requires more serious evaluations of past policy, but also a reevaluation of prior empirical work and consensus.
Manufacturing Revolutions - Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea (2019)
[Previously titled: Manufacturing Revolutions - Industrial Policy and Networks in South Korea]
Abstract - I study the impact of industrial policy on industrial development through a canonical intervention. Following a political crisis in 1972, South Korea dramatically altered its development strategy with a new sector-specific policy: the Heavy Chemical and Industry (HCI) drive. With newly digitized data, I use the sharp introduction and withdrawal of HCI trade policy and investment incentives to study its impacts. (1) I show HCI successfully promoted the evolution of directly treated industries. Next I provide evidence for two key justifications of industrial policy: network and dynamic externalities. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I show HCI indirectly benefited (non-treated) downstream industry. (3) Finally, I show both direct and indirect benefits of HCI persist even after the policy is withdrawn, following the 1979 assassination of President Park. Together, my findings suggest that the temporary drive helped shift the economy into higher value-added activity.
with Melissa Dell and Pablo Querubin. (2018). "The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam." Econometrica, 2018, Vol.86(6), p.2083(39).
Lane, Nathan. (2020). The New Empirics of Industrial Policy. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 1(2), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-019-00323-2
Information is Power - Monopoly Power, Technology, and the Rise of the Digital State - with Weijia Li
Mapping the Digital State - with Klaus Ackerman, Simon Angus, Weijia Li, and Paul Raschky [And related projects.]
Managing Export-led Industrialization - Evidence from South Korea's Export Promotion Meetings - with Changkeun Lee
Labor Repression, Democracy, and Growth in South Korea - with Daron Acemoglu and Changkeun Lee
If you're interested in data science oriented research assistant opportunities and more, feel free to shoot me an email.
I am currently accepting graduate students interested in industrial policy.